Completely pointless and fun Oscar predictions

I don’t know why I’m possessed to do these right now, but why the hell not? If I’m wrong, I’ll shake it off and say “these were just fun” but if I’m right on any of ‘em, I’ll say “told you so!”

Best Supporting Actress

Mo’Nique in Precious: Based On The Novel Push By Sapphire

Mo’Nique’s kinda had this in the bag all year since the film debuted at Sundance. Until a month or so ago, the buzz was there with hesitation, but now that people are seeing the movie and confirming that she is, in fact, the shit, she’s got this, hands down.

Stiff competition:

Julianne Moore in A Single Man

Other competition:

Saoirse Ronan in The Lovely Bones if they push her as supporting for what is likely a lead role.

Susan Sarandon in The Lovely Bones

Any of the Nine girls: Penélope Cruz will likely end up here with Kate Hudson and Judi Dench other possibilities, depending on how strongly the film catches on.

Anna Kendrick in Up in the Air, depending on how much critical praise and how many awards she can sneak from her stiffer competition.

Best Supporting Actor:

Christoph Waltz in Inglourious Basterds

This category’s kinda up in the air at this point. Waltz has had the most buzz so far and I think he’s pretty much a lock for at least a nomination. Whether he wins or not remains unseen, but if they’re going to honor the film (and I think the Academy will want to), they can do it here.

Stiff competition:

Stanley Tucci in The Lovely Bones. Like Waltz, if the Academy wants to honor The Lovely Bones somehow, I think they’re most likely to honor Tucci’s performance. He’s one of those “past due” actors and if the movie catches, he’ll likely be the one to get the awards bling.

Other competition:

Any number of actors. Perhaps some Alfred Molina in An Education, perhaps someone from Clint Eastwood’s Invictus, perhaps someone from Avatar if that film gets critical kudos, perhaps someone from The Last Station. ::shrugs::

Best Actress:

Gabourey “Gabby” Sidibe in Precious: Based On The Novel Push By Sapphire

This one’s gonna be a tough one to call. It will likely come down to Sidibe, Meryl Streep, and Carey Mulligan. A lot of how this race will play out is going to depend on how critical kudos get doled out, but all three are pretty much locks for nominations. Mulligan’s lost steam and she needs a critical push if she wants to eek out a win, and Streep is Streep, so she’s fine. Precious is likely going to become the steamroller movie of the season, I think, and Sidibe is a large part of the film’s success (I get to see it Wednesday night and am beyond excited). It’s a tough race right now, but it’s also only late October. Don’t hold me to this if I’m wrong – Sidibe has a lot going against her: she’s young, she’s a newcomer, and she’s black. All things the Academy shies away from in this category, but hey, stranger things have happened, and if the movie and the performance click like I think they will, we could see her a big winner.

Stiff competition:

Meryl Streep in Julie & Julia

Carey Mulligan in An Education

Other competition:

It doesn’t really matter. One of these three will win. I’ll say it here, though: Marion Cotillard will be pushed as lead actress in the Oscar race for Nine and I wouldn’t be surprised to see her nominated here.

Best Actor:

Colin Firth in A Single Man

A Single Man got picked up by The Weinstein Company, and they’re notoriously pushy in their Oscar campaigns, and Firth has already been winning mantle bling for his role here. He’s the safest bet right now.

Stiff competition:

No one yet. Depends who rises to the top.

Other competition:

James McAvoy in The Last Station

George Clooney in Up in the Air – he’ll likely get a nomination, but we’ll see if he has a shot at winning.

Best Director:

Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker

At this point, I’m banking on The Hurt Locker and Precious fighting it out for the bulk of major prizes. While predicting Bigelow here is risky (women just don’t win Oscars for directing), I wouldn’t be surprised if it happened. It’s a long shot, but it’s what I’m going with – at this point, I don’t see both films winning both director and picture, so I’m splitting the vote.

Stiff competition:

Lee Daniels for Precious: Based On The Novel Push By Sapphire

Jason Reitman for Up in the Air – I see the movie being too straightforward “prestige” and “adult drama” and “look at the acting” and “look at the emotional moments” to catch on for a whole lot of wins. Reitman’ll win eventually, but I think he’s got bigger competition elsewhere.

Other competition:

Clint Eastwood if Invictus gains traction.

Rob Marshall if Nine gets traction beyond the actors and technical nods.

Best Picture:

Precious: Based On The Novel Push By Sapphire

I have no doubt about the acting recognition this film will likely receive, and I think that especially with ten nominees this year, it’s a lock for a nomination. The reason I think it’ll win (at least at this point in the race) is because I just can’t see anything else having the same combination of acting prowess, audience approval, and emotional impact. If Avatar really does turn into the next Titanic, I think it’ll be appreciated-not-loved. An Education is too small a film to make a huge impact. Nine is too similar to Chicago to duplicate that film’s Oscar successes. Up in the Air is similarly too polished and calculated to generate a lot of wins – plenty of nominations, yes, but few wins, I think.

Stiff competition:

The Hurt Locker

The Lovely Bones if it doesn’t suck.

Up in the Air

Other competition:

An Education – this’ll have to get some critical love at the end of the year to edge out a Best Picture nomination.

Up – likely to be nominated, but doomed to lose, I think. If they wouldn’t nominate WALL•E, I’ll doubt they’ll give Up the win.

TV Spot-Check: Glee

If there’s one show that seems to be the pop culture zeitgeist hit of the new television season, it’s Glee, and with good reason: the show is entertaining, engrossing, funny, and it’s got killer music. It’s also one of the most frustrating shows on television right now.

I think what’s so infuriating about the show is that it hasn’t decided with any consistency what it wants to be. High school satire? Full-on musical TV show that’s super campy? Pitch-black comedy? A showcase for some great natural singing? The show’s biggest problem is the style of music jarring with the style of the program. Nearly all of the songs arise in a natural manner (like they’re singing in rehearsal or are supposed to exist in a real-world environment). They’ve hired talented singers to fill the roles, but they can’t make the music feel organic at all (it’s all an Auto-Tuned hell, and they’ve picked good songs that usually do a really great job from a narrative standpoint, but they have so much gloss and production on them that it’s distracting). It’s what made “Ride With Me” such a treat, ’cause it sounded like they were all in a classroom joyously singing together. These people have the chops, for the most part – let ‘em sing.

Then, of course, there’s the dreaded fake-pregnancy storyline, which doesn’t work at all. God bless Jessalyn Gelsig, though, as the crazy “mom” to be – as she so loonily proved on Nip/Tuck, she does crazy about as well as anyone working in the industry. The Will/Emma/Ken triangle is working pretty well (now that they’re acting like adults about it and everyone seems to acknowledge that there’s chemistry between Will and Emma). Most importantly, the acting is consistently impressive, primarily from Jayma Mays (can we get her and Anna Faris playing sisters in something soon?), Jane Lynch, Gelsig, and Dianna Agron as pregnant cheerleader Quinn. Agron is the one who constantly blows me away. There are so many moments where you can just feel her getting it and bringing depth to what is probably the most stereotypical role on the show.

Though Glee has been all over the map and back again, there’s some quality that I can’t quite pinpoint that makes it work, even in its current flawed state. But I suppose I will take this as improvement, as a handful of episodes ago, I was tweeting that there was something nagging at me that was a gaping problem in the show. The show has only improved as it’s unfurled more episodes, which bodes well for the rest of this season. It’s a good sign that there seems to be so many fans and critics alike talking about the show’s flaws and pulling for the show to overcome them and become something great. It definitely has the potential.

A quick quote about Glee

What’s more, there’s nothing quite like a show that can make you feel an emotional reaction to a formerly deeply stereotypical pregnant Christian cheerleader by using a song written by Avril Lavigne for a movie about a dragon.

Thanks, A.V. Club.

(I’ll have my thoughts about Glee up in the next day or so, for those who care.)

A quick note:

I’ve often said that deep within my soul lives a middle-aged woman who likes to throw parties. That line sums me up pretty well. I think said woman looks like an amalgam of the following two women:

Not just any photo of Meryl Streep or Margaret Atwood (who’s on Twitter – how fucking awesome is that?!!) – these particular pictures. Their poses/actions are applicable, too.

That’s all.

Cannonball Capstone

Reading books takes more time and represents a more significant chunk of your life than a movie-viewing experience does. Movies will take three hours from your life, tops, and they’re solitary activities where generally you’re only watching that movie. But I carry books with me for weeks (even if I’m reading quickly, I tend to read a bunch of things simultaneously), and that book immediately assumes an instant association with the period in my life when I read it.

A movie can be re-watched with little effort, but to re-read a book is very much a commitment. Reviews are thus a much more integral step in the reading process, as I’ve learned during my epic failure of completing the Cannonball Read. A review helps to encapsulate how the book affected me and what I was thus feeling and experiencing during the period in which I read it. Before attempting the Cannonball (read 100 books in a year), I don’t think I’d ever written a book review. Now I have seven snapshots of my reading history since January 1, 2009.

I was simply too ambitious in this task, and I’ll own up to that. Though one of my books was nearly 900 pages in length (the amazing, awesome I Know This Much Is True), two of them were just barely over 200 pages. Though others seemed to glide past the finish line ahead of schedule, I struggled to average one book a month. All told, though, I’m glad I tried. I got to put together a list of books I want to read, which required research and a thirst for good literature, and I probably read more than if I hadn’t at least tried the ambitious task of 100 books in a year. And that alone is a triumph for me.

The Cannonball will be back starting November 1st, and I will be participating again. The challenge has been softened considerably: 52 books in a year. One book a week. Doable, right? Enh, probably not for me. But I will try. I think the caveat I’m going to put on myself is that all 52 books must be books I already own. I have way more books than I’ve actually read, but every book I own (for the most part) is a book that I’ve wanted to read.

All in all, though I failed miserably, I’m still glad I tried at the first round. And with the promise of a monetary donation to charity if you finish 52 books, maybe I’ll actually finish the damn thing this time around.

Or, y’know, fail miserably again.