Completely pointless and fun Oscar predictions

I don’t know why I’m possessed to do these right now, but why the hell not? If I’m wrong, I’ll shake it off and say “these were just fun” but if I’m right on any of ‘em, I’ll say “told you so!”

Best Supporting Actress

Mo’Nique in Precious: Based On The Novel Push By Sapphire

Mo’Nique’s kinda had this in the bag all year since the film debuted at Sundance. Until a month or so ago, the buzz was there with hesitation, but now that people are seeing the movie and confirming that she is, in fact, the shit, she’s got this, hands down.

Stiff competition:

Julianne Moore in A Single Man

Other competition:

Saoirse Ronan in The Lovely Bones if they push her as supporting for what is likely a lead role.

Susan Sarandon in The Lovely Bones

Any of the Nine girls: Penélope Cruz will likely end up here with Kate Hudson and Judi Dench other possibilities, depending on how strongly the film catches on.

Anna Kendrick in Up in the Air, depending on how much critical praise and how many awards she can sneak from her stiffer competition.

Best Supporting Actor:

Christoph Waltz in Inglourious Basterds

This category’s kinda up in the air at this point. Waltz has had the most buzz so far and I think he’s pretty much a lock for at least a nomination. Whether he wins or not remains unseen, but if they’re going to honor the film (and I think the Academy will want to), they can do it here.

Stiff competition:

Stanley Tucci in The Lovely Bones. Like Waltz, if the Academy wants to honor The Lovely Bones somehow, I think they’re most likely to honor Tucci’s performance. He’s one of those “past due” actors and if the movie catches, he’ll likely be the one to get the awards bling.

Other competition:

Any number of actors. Perhaps some Alfred Molina in An Education, perhaps someone from Clint Eastwood’s Invictus, perhaps someone from Avatar if that film gets critical kudos, perhaps someone from The Last Station. ::shrugs::

Best Actress:

Gabourey “Gabby” Sidibe in Precious: Based On The Novel Push By Sapphire

This one’s gonna be a tough one to call. It will likely come down to Sidibe, Meryl Streep, and Carey Mulligan. A lot of how this race will play out is going to depend on how critical kudos get doled out, but all three are pretty much locks for nominations. Mulligan’s lost steam and she needs a critical push if she wants to eek out a win, and Streep is Streep, so she’s fine. Precious is likely going to become the steamroller movie of the season, I think, and Sidibe is a large part of the film’s success (I get to see it Wednesday night and am beyond excited). It’s a tough race right now, but it’s also only late October. Don’t hold me to this if I’m wrong – Sidibe has a lot going against her: she’s young, she’s a newcomer, and she’s black. All things the Academy shies away from in this category, but hey, stranger things have happened, and if the movie and the performance click like I think they will, we could see her a big winner.

Stiff competition:

Meryl Streep in Julie & Julia

Carey Mulligan in An Education

Other competition:

It doesn’t really matter. One of these three will win. I’ll say it here, though: Marion Cotillard will be pushed as lead actress in the Oscar race for Nine and I wouldn’t be surprised to see her nominated here.

Best Actor:

Colin Firth in A Single Man

A Single Man got picked up by The Weinstein Company, and they’re notoriously pushy in their Oscar campaigns, and Firth has already been winning mantle bling for his role here. He’s the safest bet right now.

Stiff competition:

No one yet. Depends who rises to the top.

Other competition:

James McAvoy in The Last Station

George Clooney in Up in the Air – he’ll likely get a nomination, but we’ll see if he has a shot at winning.

Best Director:

Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker

At this point, I’m banking on The Hurt Locker and Precious fighting it out for the bulk of major prizes. While predicting Bigelow here is risky (women just don’t win Oscars for directing), I wouldn’t be surprised if it happened. It’s a long shot, but it’s what I’m going with – at this point, I don’t see both films winning both director and picture, so I’m splitting the vote.

Stiff competition:

Lee Daniels for Precious: Based On The Novel Push By Sapphire

Jason Reitman for Up in the Air – I see the movie being too straightforward “prestige” and “adult drama” and “look at the acting” and “look at the emotional moments” to catch on for a whole lot of wins. Reitman’ll win eventually, but I think he’s got bigger competition elsewhere.

Other competition:

Clint Eastwood if Invictus gains traction.

Rob Marshall if Nine gets traction beyond the actors and technical nods.

Best Picture:

Precious: Based On The Novel Push By Sapphire

I have no doubt about the acting recognition this film will likely receive, and I think that especially with ten nominees this year, it’s a lock for a nomination. The reason I think it’ll win (at least at this point in the race) is because I just can’t see anything else having the same combination of acting prowess, audience approval, and emotional impact. If Avatar really does turn into the next Titanic, I think it’ll be appreciated-not-loved. An Education is too small a film to make a huge impact. Nine is too similar to Chicago to duplicate that film’s Oscar successes. Up in the Air is similarly too polished and calculated to generate a lot of wins – plenty of nominations, yes, but few wins, I think.

Stiff competition:

The Hurt Locker

The Lovely Bones if it doesn’t suck.

Up in the Air

Other competition:

An Education – this’ll have to get some critical love at the end of the year to edge out a Best Picture nomination.

Up – likely to be nominated, but doomed to lose, I think. If they wouldn’t nominate WALL•E, I’ll doubt they’ll give Up the win.

Bening vs. Swank again?!

I just read an early rave of Mother and Child from Toronto, the viewer saying it’s got Oscar-bait written all over it and that Annette Bening is amazing in it.

So if the film gets picked up for distribution by the end of the year and Hilary Swank’s Amelia turns into the awards-bait it looks like, might we have a Swank/Bening showdown again? Oscar enthusiasts will remember that Swank narrowly beat Bening in 1999 and that Bening was Swank’s close competition in 2004 when Swank won for Million Dollar Baby. It has been five years, so I guess we’re due.

Though my money’s on Carey Mulligan. It has been since her buzz out of Sundance at the beginning of the year.

Oscar Picks 2009

The oscar picks are up over at WBW. Every year I seem to try to raise my Photoshop game one notch higher. I’m actually much more comfortable with that program than I think I am… I think. ::shrugs:: But these articles are always a lot of fun to put together. Last year I was 7.5/8 in the main categories (I chickened out on Best Actress), so hopefully I’ll go 8/8 this year.

BREAKING NEWS: Oscars once again offer few surprises

::sigh::

Every year I think the Oscars will do what I want them to do and every year I get a little disappointed once the nominations are announced.  And I realize that they are merely one of many year-end awards, but still, today I woke up and read the list and just thought really?? The Reader for Best Picture? No love for Sally Hawkins or a surprise Best Director nod for Mike Leight for Happy-Go-Lucky? No surprise Best Picture love for WALL•E? (Seriously, Academy: it’s O.K. to like animated films in the Best Picture race.)

Nice surprises included Melissa Leo actually getting nominated for Frozen River, Taraji P. Henson getting a nom for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, and Kate Winslet getting a nomination for The Reader in the lead category. Supporting actresses this year can now breathe a sigh of relief because they all have a shot of winning (well, not Amy Adams… she’s like the Queen Latifah in Chicago of this year where if someone from Doubt is going to win, it’s clearly going to be Viola Davis).

With that, let’s break it down by category:

BEST PICTURE
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
No surprises here, save for The Reader. Just because a film is produced by the Weinsteins and is about the Holocaust doesn’t mean it’s actually good. I just saw this on Tuesday and I was immensely disappointed.
PREDICTION ACCURACY: 3/5

BEST DIRECTOR
Danny Boyle – Slumdog Millionaire
Stephen Daldry – The Reader
David Fincher – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard – Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant – Milk
The only nomination here I can get really excited about is Danny Boyle’s, but even in his case I’m kind of lukewarm on it. It’s just not a very interesting group this year. Daldry, though, has made three films and been nominated all three times. That’s pretty cool. Too bad The Reader is by far his weakest film.
PREDICTION ACCURACY: 4/5

BEST ACTOR
Richard Jenkins – The Visitor
Frank Langella – Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn – Milk
Brad Pitt – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke – The Wrestler
This is a two-way race between Penn and Rourke, yes? I’ve not seen Jenkins in The Visitor, so I’ll be sure to check that out before the ceremony, but beyond that, I just hope Brad Pitt doesn’t win. Nothing against him, but he wasn’t the strongest part of Benjamin Button by a long shot.
PREDICTION ACCURACY: 4/5

BEST ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway – Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie – Changeling
Melissa Leo – Frozen River
Meryl Streep – Doubt
Kate Winslet – The Reader
Surprising to see Winslet here for The Reader, but only because she was campaigned so heavily for supporting. It’s probably for the best that she didn’t end up with a double nomination, because now I think she’s a clear leader for a win here. She’s simply due. Nice to see Melissa Leo in the mix – I’ll be sure to see the film before the ceremony. I’m almost rooting for her as a placeholder for Sally Hawkins, who was snubbed here. That’s alright, though: she can take comfort in her majority of critics’ prizes she accrued this year.
PREDICTION ACCURACY: 3.5/5 (I don’t think anyone thought Winslet would be nominated here for The Reader but we assumed she’d be nominated.)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin – Milk
Robert Downey Jr. – Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman – Doubt
Heath Ledger – The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon – Revolutionary Road
Really, Michael Shannon? Other than that, all that needs to be said about this category is that Ledger is a lock.
PREDICTION ACCURACY: 4/5

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams – Doubt
Penélope Cruz – Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis – Doubt
Taraji P. Henson – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei – The Wrestler
I have no beef with any of these performances. Really, anyone winning here would be fine by me, though I’m rooting for Tomei. Hers was a personal favorite performance of mine (she’s the heart and soul of The Wrestler), though this is probably gonna end up going to Davis or Cruz. How nice, though, if we end up getting Javier Bardem giving girlfriend Penélope Cruz the Oscar. It’d be a nice moment (and yet another Best Supporting Actress win for a Woody Allen-directed actress).
PREDICTION ACCURACY: 3.5/5 (Kate got nominated, but in lead.)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Frozen River – Courtney Hunt
Happy-Go-Lucky – Mike Leigh
In Bruges – Martin McDonagh
Milk – Dustin Lance Black
WALL•E – Andrew Stanton, Pete Docter, Jim Reardon
I have In Bruges sitting on my TV and I’ve heard nothing but good things about it. Ultimately, though, Frozen River is perhaps the biggest surprise here, filling a slot on the Oscars’ obligatory “Independent Films are Good, Too!” checklist. It’s a shame that this is Happy-Go-Lucky’s only major nomination, but whatevs. It’s just an awards show.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – Eric Roth
Doubt – John Patrick Shanley
Frost/Nixon – Peter Morgan
The Reader – David Hare
Slumdog Millionaire – Simon Beaufoy
Another category that’s hard to get really excited about. Meh.

Overall, the year at the Oscars looks to be representative of everything that the Oscars are sometimes derided for, with their total shunning of blockbusters and disregard, on the whole, for films that didn’t come out in the last two months. It just reminds you that the whole enterprise is 90% maneuvering and politics and 10% based on actual quality. Sometimes that 10% is enough to push you through to being invited to the big night, but all too often, deserving nominees get trampled by films with bigger ad campaigns.

“Time for lunch… in a cup!”

I’m actually fairly on schedule this year with my Best of 2008 list over at WBW.  I had a lot of fun putting the copy and graphics together for this one.  Photoshop is rapidly becoming a beast that I’m gaining a hold on, where at first it scared the bejeezus out of me to even attempt doing something.

And here I’ll launch another section of the blog: the lists page.  I love me a good list.  My roommate and I often spend nights after work making various Top 10s (we recently put together our ideal five women to co-host The View… good times). So I think I’ll start sharing them ’round these parts. And what better way to start than with this year’s best films?

And the nominees will be…

For what it’s worth, here are my predictions for who will be nominated for an Oscar Thursday morning.  (This whole entry turned into a much more involved excursion than I originally intended.  That sort of thing usually happens when I start talking about the Oscars.)

BEST PICTURE

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL•E 
Wild cards: Doubt, Frost/Nixon, The Reader
My personal ballot: Cloverfield, Happy-Go-Lucky, My Blueberry Nights, Slumdog Millionaire, WALL•E
My thoughts: I’ll admit that WALL•E is a long shot and my placing it here is steeped in personal bias.  But the ballot for the Oscars weighs first-place nominations more heavily than lower place nominations.  And I feel that a lot of people would put WALL•E first or second (if they’re putting Slumdog first as I also think a lot of people are likely to do).  The Dark Knight is the other wild card here, and I think Frost/Nixon will end up getting lost in the shuffle.  Ultimately, this is Slumdog’s Oscar to lose.

BEST DIRECTOR

Danny Boyle – Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard – Frost/Nixon
Christopher Nolan – The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant - Milk

Wild cards: Darren Aronofsky (The Wrestler), Stephen Daldry (The Reader), Jonathan Demme (Rachel Getting Married)
My personal ballot: The Coen Brothers (Burn After Reading), Wong Kar-Wai (My Blueberry Nights), Mike Leigh (Happy-Go-Lucky), Matt Reeves (Cloverfield), Andrew Stanton (WALL•E)
My thoughts: I wouldn’t mind seeing Aronofsky slip into the mix here, maybe in place of Howard.  I liked Frost/Nixon quite a bit, but it’s a very difficult film to love.  I appreciate it and understand that it’s well made, but beyond that, there isn’t much to get passionate about with the film.  Milk has been overrated, I think (another good-not-great film), so I wouldn’t mind seeing someone slip instead of Van Sant, but like Best Picture, it’s all pretty moot: this is Danny Boyle’s to lose.

BEST ACTOR

Clint Eastwood - Gran Torino
Richard Jenkins – The Visitor
Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
Mickey Rourke – The Wrestler
Sean Penn – Milk

Wild cards: Josh Brolin (W.), Leonardo DiCaprio (Revolutionary Road), Brad Pitt (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button)
My personal ballot: Josh Brolin (W.), Philip Seymour Hoffman (Synecdoche, New York), Frank Langella (Frost/Nixon), Sean Penn (Milk), Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler)
My thoughts: This is a solid category.  The performances I’ve seen (all but Eastwood and Jenkins) I’ve thought were pretty great.  I really like Brad Pitt, but if he’s gonna get an Oscar nomination this year, I’d really really rather prefer it were in Supporting for Burn After Reading.  He just didn’t have to do much in Benjamin Button. 

BEST ACTRESS

Anne Hathaway – Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins - Happy-Go-Lucky
Melissa Leo – Frozen River
Meryl Streep – Doubt
Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road

Wild cards: Cate Blanchett (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button), Angelina Jolie (Changeling), Kristin Scott-Thomas (I’ve Loved You So Long)
My personal ballot: Anne Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married), Sally Hawkins (Happy-Go-Lucky), Evan Rachel Wood (The Life Before Her Eyes), Naomi Watts (Funny Games), Kate Winslet (Revolutionary Road)
My thoughts: Hathaway, Streep, and Winslet are all locks for nominations.  Hawkins is close and I hope she doesn’t fall through the cracks.  I’m throwing Melissa Leo into the mix because there’s usually an unsung indie darling that slips into this category and Laura Linney isn’t in anything this year.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Josh Brolin - Milk
Robert Downey Jr. – Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman – Doubt
Heath Ledger – The Dark Knight
Dev Patel – Slumdog Millionaire

Wild cards: James Franco (Milk), Eddie Marsan (Happy-Go-Lucky), Brad Pitt (Burn After Reading)
My personal ballot: Robert Downey Jr. (Tropic Thunder), Aaron Eckhart (The Dark Knight), Emile Hirsch (Milk), Bill Irwin (Rachel Getting Married), Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight) 
My thoughts: I’m surprised Bill Irwin hasn’t latched onto the Rachel Getting Married buzz train that I think Rosemarie DeWitt will ride to a nomination (see below) – he was excellent.  And Heath Ledger is so good in The Dark Knight that he overshadowed another strong performance from Eckhart.  If only they had saved Two-Face for a third Batman film.  Dev Patel I think will slip in based on Slumdog Millionaire‘s deafening buzz it’s been generating.  Hoffman’s great in Doubt – too bad it’s a lead performance.  Honestly, though, how awkward if someone other than Heath Ledger ends up winning this. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Penélope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis – Doubt
Rosemarie DeWitt - Rachel Getting Married
Marisa Tomei – The Wrestler
Kate Winslet – The Reader

Wild cards: Amy Adams (Doubt), Taraji P. Henson (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button), Freida Pinto (Slumdog Millionaire)
My personal ballot: Penélope Cruz (Vicky Cristina Barcelona), Hope Davis (Synecdoche, New York), Viola Davis (Doubt), Rosemary DeWitt (Rachel Getting Married), Marisa Tomei (The Wrestler)
My thoughts:  Well, four of my favorites I’ve prognosticated, so I can’t complain about this category.  DeWitt I think will gain enough momentum from support for the film and from admiration for Anne Hathaway.  She’s just as good as Hathaway, though Hathaway’s getting all the award buzz, which I have no problem with.  I’d really like to see Marisa Tomei walk away with this, though.  She’s the reason The Wrestler is as emotionally-affecting as it is.  It seems like her entire career of the past ten years has been role after role of her justifying her much-derided Oscar for My Cousin Vinny.  Consider it justified, Marisa.  With The Wrestler, and earlier work in Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead and In the Bedroom, she’s proven herself to be a versatile supporting player and I hope she gets another Oscar that people can agree she deserves.  (Though Hope Davis was far and away the best part of Synecdoche, New York in a very difficult comedic role.)