For what it’s worth, here are my predictions for who will be nominated for an Oscar Thursday morning. (This whole entry turned into a much more involved excursion than I originally intended. That sort of thing usually happens when I start talking about the Oscars.)
BEST PICTURE
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL•E
Wild cards: Doubt, Frost/Nixon, The Reader
My personal ballot: Cloverfield, Happy-Go-Lucky, My Blueberry Nights, Slumdog Millionaire, WALL•E
My thoughts: I’ll admit that WALL•E is a long shot and my placing it here is steeped in personal bias. But the ballot for the Oscars weighs first-place nominations more heavily than lower place nominations. And I feel that a lot of people would put WALL•E first or second (if they’re putting Slumdog first as I also think a lot of people are likely to do). The Dark Knight is the other wild card here, and I think Frost/Nixon will end up getting lost in the shuffle. Ultimately, this is Slumdog’s Oscar to lose.
BEST DIRECTOR
Danny Boyle – Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard – Frost/Nixon
Christopher Nolan – The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant - Milk
Wild cards: Darren Aronofsky (The Wrestler), Stephen Daldry (The Reader), Jonathan Demme (Rachel Getting Married)
My personal ballot: The Coen Brothers (Burn After Reading), Wong Kar-Wai (My Blueberry Nights), Mike Leigh (Happy-Go-Lucky), Matt Reeves (Cloverfield), Andrew Stanton (WALL•E)
My thoughts: I wouldn’t mind seeing Aronofsky slip into the mix here, maybe in place of Howard. I liked Frost/Nixon quite a bit, but it’s a very difficult film to love. I appreciate it and understand that it’s well made, but beyond that, there isn’t much to get passionate about with the film. Milk has been overrated, I think (another good-not-great film), so I wouldn’t mind seeing someone slip instead of Van Sant, but like Best Picture, it’s all pretty moot: this is Danny Boyle’s to lose.
BEST ACTOR
Clint Eastwood - Gran Torino
Richard Jenkins – The Visitor
Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
Mickey Rourke – The Wrestler
Sean Penn – Milk
Wild cards: Josh Brolin (W.), Leonardo DiCaprio (Revolutionary Road), Brad Pitt (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button)
My personal ballot: Josh Brolin (W.), Philip Seymour Hoffman (Synecdoche, New York), Frank Langella (Frost/Nixon), Sean Penn (Milk), Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler)
My thoughts: This is a solid category. The performances I’ve seen (all but Eastwood and Jenkins) I’ve thought were pretty great. I really like Brad Pitt, but if he’s gonna get an Oscar nomination this year, I’d really really rather prefer it were in Supporting for Burn After Reading. He just didn’t have to do much in Benjamin Button.
BEST ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway – Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins - Happy-Go-Lucky
Melissa Leo – Frozen River
Meryl Streep – Doubt
Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road
Wild cards: Cate Blanchett (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button), Angelina Jolie (Changeling), Kristin Scott-Thomas (I’ve Loved You So Long)
My personal ballot: Anne Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married), Sally Hawkins (Happy-Go-Lucky), Evan Rachel Wood (The Life Before Her Eyes), Naomi Watts (Funny Games), Kate Winslet (Revolutionary Road)
My thoughts: Hathaway, Streep, and Winslet are all locks for nominations. Hawkins is close and I hope she doesn’t fall through the cracks. I’m throwing Melissa Leo into the mix because there’s usually an unsung indie darling that slips into this category and Laura Linney isn’t in anything this year.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin - Milk
Robert Downey Jr. – Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman – Doubt
Heath Ledger – The Dark Knight
Dev Patel – Slumdog Millionaire
Wild cards: James Franco (Milk), Eddie Marsan (Happy-Go-Lucky), Brad Pitt (Burn After Reading)
My personal ballot: Robert Downey Jr. (Tropic Thunder), Aaron Eckhart (The Dark Knight), Emile Hirsch (Milk), Bill Irwin (Rachel Getting Married), Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight)
My thoughts: I’m surprised Bill Irwin hasn’t latched onto the Rachel Getting Married buzz train that I think Rosemarie DeWitt will ride to a nomination (see below) – he was excellent. And Heath Ledger is so good in The Dark Knight that he overshadowed another strong performance from Eckhart. If only they had saved Two-Face for a third Batman film. Dev Patel I think will slip in based on Slumdog Millionaire‘s deafening buzz it’s been generating. Hoffman’s great in Doubt – too bad it’s a lead performance. Honestly, though, how awkward if someone other than Heath Ledger ends up winning this.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Penélope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis – Doubt
Rosemarie DeWitt - Rachel Getting Married
Marisa Tomei – The Wrestler
Kate Winslet – The Reader
Wild cards: Amy Adams (Doubt), Taraji P. Henson (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button), Freida Pinto (Slumdog Millionaire)
My personal ballot: Penélope Cruz (Vicky Cristina Barcelona), Hope Davis (Synecdoche, New York), Viola Davis (Doubt), Rosemary DeWitt (Rachel Getting Married), Marisa Tomei (The Wrestler)
My thoughts: Well, four of my favorites I’ve prognosticated, so I can’t complain about this category. DeWitt I think will gain enough momentum from support for the film and from admiration for Anne Hathaway. She’s just as good as Hathaway, though Hathaway’s getting all the award buzz, which I have no problem with. I’d really like to see Marisa Tomei walk away with this, though. She’s the reason The Wrestler is as emotionally-affecting as it is. It seems like her entire career of the past ten years has been role after role of her justifying her much-derided Oscar for My Cousin Vinny. Consider it justified, Marisa. With The Wrestler, and earlier work in Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead and In the Bedroom, she’s proven herself to be a versatile supporting player and I hope she gets another Oscar that people can agree she deserves. (Though Hope Davis was far and away the best part of Synecdoche, New York in a very difficult comedic role.)
